Thursday Unsettled, A Bit Warmer
Early risers around the state should be aware of freezing fog in areas to start Thursday morning. The fog may slick roadways and reduce visibility in areas, so be aware if traveling before dawn. The fog quickly burns off after sunrise as temperatures rise. The sky generally will be mostly cloudy statewide, although some peeks of sun may occur in between waves.
As the waves move through the region, the precipitation type depends on what region. Snow showers with light accumulations of an inch or less are possible in the mountains & northern Somerset County. Light rain showers are possible along the coast. Toward evening, waves continue to cross in to Aroostook County where hit or miss snow showers are possible late afternoon into the evening. Highs for the day will generally be in the 30s away from the coast, although the protected valleys in higher elevations may stay in the 20s. Coastal areas from Sanford to Bangor to Calais may top out around 40°. Wind will generally be light during the day, but appears to increase Thursday night into Friday.
Polar Express Arrives Friday
After the waves pass through Thursday, the coldest air of the season arrives under a biting breeze on Friday. Forecast highs for the day appear to top out in the 20s overall, but with the wind chill, it will feel like single digits & teens statewide. Folks headed to the slopes or engaged in outdoor activity in the rooftop of the state this weekend will certainly want to dress for it as the breeze will continue and keep the temperature values below zero. This trend appears to hang over the region until early next week. Maximum temperatures Saturday are likely to top out in the low teens to mid-20s. The breeze appears to subside a bit Sunday as high pressure passes through the region which will help the mercury climb a bit more from the low 20s to near freezing at the shorelines. With the cold air entrenched over the state, this sets up snow potential to start Monday.
Questions Remain On Monday Storm
Two factors to consider as time approaches Monday. For one, the deep cold of the weekend won’t easily move out of the way. Second of all, the system headed for the Great Lakes may spin off a coastal low late Sunday. Some models are on board with the idea, as the ECMWF (or European Model), which typically handles the cold better than most other guidance. The phasing of the northern jet with the southern jet happens Sunday and then the storm intensifies through the Great Lakes and then into southwestern Quebec. Low pressure forms near the Gulf Of Maine and tracks right along the shoreline before it intensifies in the Bay of Fundy. It’s important to note here that there is inconsistency with the model runs. To its credit, the European model has been showing snow all along for Maine starting roughly late Sunday night and ending in the wee hours of Tuesday. For now, there is reason to believe that the chance of a plowable snow is roughly 60% for most of the state. The proximity of the coastal low to the shoreline will be imperative to figure out any mixing, how far inland that goes, or if rain factors into it. It’s safe to say that something can be expected, with more details on accumulations and other effects still to come in the next few days.
~ Mike Haggett