Friday appears to be a blustery one for the state as high pressure moves eastward. The coldest air of the season thus far will pour into the region with wind out of the northwest. While the thermometer may read one value, what it feels like will be another.
The mountains and the rooftop of Maine may see some down slope snow showers, but accumulations appear light at best. Ski country may pick up an inch or two, but Aroostook may get a trace to half inch at best. I can’t rule out a snow shower for the foothills of western areas, but if any form, they will likely be short lived. Coastal areas appear to see the most sun during the day.
Actual temperatures will range in the 20s for a majority of the state, with low 30s the high mark for the coastal plain. With the wind gusting to 25 mph at times, what the temperature will feel like in the mountains will be in the single digits, and teens elsewhere. After dark, the wind chill index plummets.
A Frosty But Dry Weekend
The High Peaks region & rooftop of the state wake up with biting wind chill values in double digits below zero, with most of the rest of region in the single digits. The sharp breeze continues until Saturday evening before it diminishes. The wind chill temperatures remain near or below zero for the mountains & Aroostook for most of the day, and single digits elsewhere. Actual temperatures appear to range from the single digits north to the low 20s for the southwest coast. Skies appear generally sunny in all locales, with some fair weather clouds filtering through at times.
Sunday appears to be another mostly sunny day statewide, with less wind. Highs will trend upward a little, reaching the teens for the mountains up through Aroostook, 20s south to the coast, where a few shoreline towns may reach the low 30s. Clouds increase Sunday night ahead of the next storm that arrives Monday.
Forecast Confidence Still Low For Monday
There are still many questions in regards to Monday’s storm. Given the time frame between now and then, guidance did hint at some potential solutions. The GFS model idea presented here lays all the options on the table, and the case is there that this may happen. An intensifying area of low pressure near Lake Ontario drags up warmer air to its east, which causes the potential for snow north, mix for the interior, and rain at the coast.
While that theory is possible, guidance also hints of a coastal low forming offshore of southern New England travelling into the Gulf of Maine. That would be a game changer if that were to happen as more areas would see snow due to the cold air locked in from the weekend. The rain / mix lines would be much closer to the coast pending on track.
At this point, it would safe to assume many locales see snow, from roughly Sanford to Lewiston/Auburn, to Augusta, to Bangor, and over to Eastport, northward. South of that line is the area in question as far as precipitation type. It is still too early to accurately reveal potential accumulations, but it would be wise to prepare for a plowable event no matter where you are reading this. Guidance has been very erratic and difficult to stay on any single idea, although today they began to come around to some possibilities.
I will do my best to keep you updated on this event through the weekend.
~ Mike Haggett