The forecast discussed over the past couple of days appears to be holding up well. Only change is for Saturday as a frontal boundary will drop through the region with a bit more moisture than what was previous thought, but impact will be minimal on the overall weekend forecast. Folks traveling this weekend should keep watch on the storm approaching Monday into Tuesday.
I made a subtle tweak to the snowfall map posted last evening based on the forecast trends of the day, for the mountains and interior Down East areas. Other than that, the rest of it remains true. There is not a whole lot of moisture associated with this weak clipper. Mountain areas will pick up a couple extra inches in spots from upslope conditions. Interior Hancock & Washington Counties may see a bit of coastal enhancement once the upper level energy interacts with the moisture from the ocean.
This is more or less a six hour event overall, with the western half of the state seeing it in the morning, transitioning to the eastern half during the daylight hours, and eventually ending way Down East by early evening.
Friday remains on track to be a bit breezy with the storm intensifying to the east and high pressure building south of the state during the day. This will help to bump temperatures up to around 40° at the coast. The north & mountains remain in the 20s and areas south and east reach the mid to upper 30s.
The storm that will appears to affect the region the first of the week starts to better organize itself over the Rockies and heads for the Northern Plains & Great Lakes later on in the weekend.
A Bit Of Snow/Rain For Saturday
Watching the trend for Saturday this week has been on again / off again for snow showers for the mountains and north from a low cutting across Central Quebec. Guidance has amplified the trough it will spin off a bit to bring light spotty snow showers, perhaps spotty rain showers along the coastal plain. There is not a whole lot of moisture associated with this event. As with these types of weak clippers, Down East areas are likely to receive the most precipitation amounts, and this one is no different. According to European model estimates, three tenths of an inch of water is associated with this event, with the highest amount along the shorelines Penobscot Bay to Lubec.
Precipitation begins Saturday morning in the west and ends roughly mid-afternoon. Shower activity begins in the east & north by early to mid-afternoon and ends by early evening. The mountains may benefit with some backside snow showers Saturday night. Any snow accumulations appear to be a dusting for most of the area where it stays all snow, with the higher elevations picking up an inch or so. If anything, it will bring a festive Currier & Ives appearance, and is not likely to require plows to operate for most, if not all of the state.
Highs for day appear to range from a degree or two around 30° for the mountains and north, to around 40° for the shorelines, Bangor over to Calais south.
Christmas Day Looks Good
Sunday for the state will be a very nice one. Clouds may be around to start off in areas, but those appear to blow out of the area thanks to a northwesterly breeze during the day. The chill from the breeze will help hold temps in the 20s north and mountains, Rumford / Millinocket south rise the to the 30s, and 40s are possible for the coast.
Guidance has adjusted itself a bit, slowing the progression of the storm in the north central part of the country, and is sparing our area of hasty departure plans on Sunday. That said, folks travelling should fill their mugs with something warm and head out the door early Monday.
Questions For Impact Time Monday
This part of the forecast is where we reach some uncertainty. This CFS model idea is more inline with the European thinking that the storm may be on our doorstep by early Monday night. Sensing this may blend with the GFS idea where precipitation may start in the afternoon on Monday for Maine, this is why I suggest anyone driving to get on the road early Monday to avoid any travel issues south and west of Maine. Clouds will be on the increase, and conditions appear headed downhill throughout the day. Temperatures for the day will be considerably cooler for the state, as highs are projected to be in the teens for the north & mountains, with 20s elsewhere.
Expect a messy day statewide on Tuesday. I will update on that tomorrow.
Thanks as always for your support!
~ Mike Haggett
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Special thanks to Tropical Tidbits and Pivotal Weather for their written permission to use their graphics in this post. Use of WeatherTAP images used within their written permitted terms of media use policy. Additional forecast information supplied by the National Weather Service, WeatherBELL Analytics and AccuWeather Professional.
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