The Trend Shifts West
The storm that is bringing snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain over the southeast travels up the eastern seaboard Friday night into Saturday. Guidance trends have shifted the storm west, and as a result, forecast snow totals have increased.
Models have shifted the storm track roughly 50 miles to the west. With the storm predicted perilously close to the shoreline for most of the week, that changes the outcome. Eastern Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the islands appear to pick up anywhere between 8-14″+ of snow from this event. For those who read my updates this week, I voiced concern about Down East areas and that is still the case. Areas from Rockland to Eastport appear to be the main beneficiaries of snowfall. York County, Portland, Belfast to Calais may end up with 2-5″. Lewiston / Auburn, Augusta, Waterville, Bangor on over to Vanceboro and up to Houlton are likely to end up in the 1-3″ range. The mountains and northern Maine were never in the hunt for snow with this event. With the track of the storm well southeast, the most those regions can expect is some flurry activity with some isolated squalls which may bring an inch.
Two questions I have at this point. First, has the trend west stopped? Will the trend shift back to the east? With models moving a considerable amount to the west, that does present the chance for a more easterly correction. Given the amount of precipitation associated with this and the time frame remaining, I’d rather wear egg on my face for being too high with snow totals than too low.
Time frame for this event appears on track for southern Maine to get in on the action early Saturday afternoon. The Bangor area can expect to see the first flakes by mid-afternoon. Snow wraps up for the Portland & western areas around midnight, Bangor is over between 2-3 AM, and the last flakes leave eastern Washington County right around daylight on Sunday.
I will have another update on this Saturday morning.
~ Mike Haggett
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Special thanks to Tropical Tidbits and Pivotal Weather for their written permission to use their graphics in this post. Use of WeatherTAP images used within their written permitted terms of media use policy. Additional forecast information supplied by the National Weather Service, WeatherBELL Analytics and AccuWeather Professional.
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