The relatively quiet weather pattern for Maine takes a shift after one more fair day Monday. A warm front increases clouds for the state Tuesday, and snow begins over southern areas Tuesday night. While primarily a storm for Southern Maine, areas to the north and east may see a plowable snow during the day Wednesday.
High pressure shifts eastward during the day Monday and a southwest flow develops. A weak upper level wave slides over the northern half of the state which will bring cloudiness in the afternoon, and perhaps a few flakes for the Crown.
Even with the southwest flow, it will bring a bit of a bite to air as the wind ranges from 5-15 mph. While the mercury may climb above freezing for southern areas, it may not feel like it as wind chill values are likely to be in the teens and 20s statewide in the afternoon.
Monday night sees clouds dissipate over the north and high level clouds creep in over the south. Lows range from the upper single digits for the rooftop, teens for interior locales and 20s for the south and shorelines.
Clouds will be on the increase Tuesday as a warm front crawls its way northeastward. Most sun will be for northern areas for the day. Highs for the day reach the teens north to 30s south.
Tuesday night, snow breaks out over southern areas by late evening. Clouds slowly increase over northern areas. Lows range from a few digits below zero for the Crown, teens & 20s over the interior, and low 30s for the shorelines.
A Southern Maine Special
For an event within the 84 hour window, there are some conflicting ideas. One thing that appears consistent is that southern areas are likely to face the brunt of this one. Interior areas of the southwest coast may see 6″+ of snowfall out of this event, from roughly Bridgton to Portland to New Hampshire. A coastal front is likely to keep accumulations down in areas around the Maine Turnpike and east. North and east of Portland appears in the 3-6″ range from Rumford, to Augusta then over to Camden. The mountains may see an inch from this one, Bangor may get a few flakes. Northern Maine areas are likely to get shut out of this one, but may be affected with a trailing low late Wednesday into Thursday. Snow appears to end over southern Maine by late afternoon to early evening Wednesday.
This is the general idea. However, there may be a twist in how this plays out.
The ocean low is a relatively weak one. Compared to other low pressure systems that have steamrolled through the region over the past few weeks, this system isn’t in any real hurry to go anywhere. This is where the conflicting ideas come into play.
The European model is fairly progressive with the ocean low, moving it well east by Wednesday night. The trailing low moves along the St. Lawrence River and may bring 1-3″ of snow for the Crown Wednesday night into Thursday.
The GFS & Canadian GEM model aren’t whisking away the coastal low so fast, which is where a red flag for concern arises with this forecaster. The GFS is usually the faster model, and the GEM usually aligns itself with the European model as far as track and timing. At the time of this post, that hasn’t happened yet. The GFS & Canadian are setting up and inverted trough idea which may cause snow to linger into Thursday, and for the areas of snow accumulations to be more widespread, and perhaps heavier for southern areas.
In a nutshell, if the progression of the coastal low slows down and catches upper level energy with the trailer, it may get interesting. With all due respect to the European model which typically does well and may again here, it’s in the minority on this storm, and worthy enough to stay tuned for any forecast changes.
A Warm Up For The Weekend, Then…
After the precipitation and clouds clear out Thursday into Friday, a strong ridge of high pressure works into the region which is likely to bring 30s & 40s for highs over the weekend. As the high moves northeastward, a deep trough moves in bringing cold air back the region. Two areas of low pressure, one moving across the plains and another forming near the Gulf of Mexico are worthy to pay attention to. Usually day seven to day ten outlooks verify ~40% of the time. I’ll just say that there is a 40% chance that the state may be in for a healthy storm next week.
My apologies for my recent absence. I am a man of many hats right now due to family related needs.
My next update will come Monday evening, with more ideas on the midweek event and what to expect for snowfall amounts.
~ Mike Haggett
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Special thanks to Tropical Tidbits and Pivotal Weather for their written permission to use their graphics in this post. Use of WeatherTAP images used within their written permitted terms of media use policy. Additional forecast information supplied by the National Weather Service, WeatherBELL Analytics and AccuWeather Professional.
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