While northern Maine gets its day in the sun, southern Maine sees clouds increase during the day as a warm front approaches. Snow breaks out over southwestern areas between 7-10 PM Tuesday night. Winter storm watches, likely to turn to warnings, are posted for interior Southern Maine.
High pressure controls the weather for the north country. High clouds approach southern areas by mid to late morning and move north. Clouds thicken south toward sunset as the front approaches.
Wind appears light for southern and northern areas, but a noticeable breeze is likely for eastern and western regions. All in all a fair day statewide, but that changes for southwest areas by Tuesday evening.
A Southern Maine Special
Snow begins to approach the southwest areas of York & Cumberland Counties by 7-8 PM and then overspreads the western & MidCoast regions by 9-10 PM Tuesday evening. Cold air damming appears to be locked for this event over southwestern areas to be a mostly snow concern. The northern and eastern most extent of the storm appears roughly just east of Moosehead Lake down to roughly Bangor and then Bar Harbor.
By daylight Wednesday, southern Maine can expect 3-4″ of snow on the ground with an inch or two possible for Wiscasset, Augusta, Livermore Falls and areas west of Route 4. This will likely make the morning commute a “body shop special” as although there isn’t a lot of snow, it will be enough for careless drivers to cause spin-offs and accidents.
Once the new coastal low siphons of the energy from the Great Lakes low, the storm will slowly move eastward. The mountains appear to see the snow taper off by around midday, and the foothills by mid-afternoon.
Southern areas begin to taper off of the steadier precipitation by the evening commute. At this time, a trailing trough approaches the western mountains and northern Maine by evening. There is a chance that areas from Bath/Brunswick over to Fryeburg north may pick up an inch or less, but areas from around Houlton / Chesuncook Lakes northward may pick up 1-3″ of snow by the time the trough passes through. Southern areas may get snow showers out of this Thursday morning, but little to no accumulation is expected.
Since cold air appears to flex its grip, the gradient between the shorelines to a handful of miles just west of the Maine Turnpike between Kittery and Scarborough are likely to be stark. While a coastal front will want to attempt to push in, the storm track appears far enough south and the storm weak enough where outside of the shorelines, cold air appears to hold for this one. The islands and areas south of Route 1 through the MidCoast also fall under the 1-3″ criteria. Augusta, Lewiston/Auburn on up to the western mountains likely top out in the 2-5″ range. Folks in the Portland area are likely to end up in the 3-6″ range by the time the storm departs. The jackpot area for this event appears over interior York, most of Cumberland and southwestern Oxford county where 3-7″ with locally higher amounts are possible by the time the event is over late Wednesday afternoon.
Areas where this forecast may under-perform is the Bangor area on up to Northern Somerset County. Areas where is could over perform is southwest Maine, and the 3-7″+ amounts may come into play for the shoreline towns if the storm tracks further south.
~ Mike Haggett
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Special thanks to Tropical Tidbits and Pivotal Weather for their written permission to use their graphics in this post. Use of WeatherTAP images used within their written permitted terms of media use policy. Additional forecast information supplied by the National Weather Service, WeatherBELL Analytics and AccuWeather Professional.
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