Low pressure driving southeast from Quebec merges with moisture streaming up from the southwest. The combination of the two are likely to bring another foot or more of snow for areas south of the Crown.
Sometimes the forecast models need to be thrown away. A forecaster needs to roll up their sleeves and dig into what the atmosphere is telling us.
What the atmosphere is indicating is that the upper level low is becoming stronger than models thought. Add to that the dip in the upper level trough is a bit deeper and a bit sharper. The moisture stream that I discussed in previous updates is just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic, and is ready to be tapped into.
As the trough swings eastward, that moisture will get tapped into. Some models are hinting at low pressure forming over Cape Cod and if so, that could be problematic.
The coastal front is likely to be short lived. Models are insisting that the air temperature will be warmer over coastal interior areas. With every short term model, they are missing their marks by 5°- 10° or more by the hour. As I have mentioned in the past, cold air wins most of the time, and it appears that it will win again for mainland areas.
Given the dynamics and trends, I have adjusted the snowfall map accordingly. The jackpot areas for this storm are in western interior areas as well as Down East. Coastal islands from Casco Bay over to Frenchman’s Bay may end up in the 4-8″ range.
Heavier amounts of precipitation appear to end for most of the state by 7 AM Thursday morning. Snow showers and squalls may add another inch or two during the day. For now, the last flakes fall for southern and western areas between 10 AM and 1 PM Thursday, and between 4-7 PM for eastern and northern areas.
After this, the region can put the shovels away and take a an extended break. Expect a nice warm up this weekend.
Special thanks to Tropical Tidbits and Pivotal Weather for their written permission to use their graphics in this post. Use of WeatherTAP images used within their written permitted terms of media use policy. Additional forecast information supplied by the National Weather Service, WeatherBELL Analytics and AccuWeather Professional.
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