The forecast trend continues to shift the storm track of Jose to the south and east. As a result, the areas of impact diminish for not only Maine, but for New England.
Areas from eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island, southeast Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands have a storm to deal with, but nothing that will get too out of hand.
For Maine, it will be the coast that is likely to see some showers and a north/northeast breeze. Areas to the north and west appear to deal with clouds and perhaps a spot shower, but that will be about it.
Gulf of Maine mariners will find this storm to be an inconvenience, providing rough surf, some beach erosion, and a rather stiff northeast breeze. Surfers should be aware of dangerous rip currents. Wave watching enthusiasts should respect the ocean, and enjoy it from a safe distance.
So how did the region escape the storm with just a brush?
This graphic here indicates vorticity (upper level energy) at roughly 20,000 feet above sea level. A strong ridge to the west, a strong ridge over the north Atlantic, and a blocking pattern of rotating upper level lows to the north has created an atmospheric traffic jam. The combination of all of that has impeded the storms progress to the north, west and east. Jose is essentially trapped, and the only way out for the storm, is to meander south.
The good news is the moisture stream for Jose has been cut off. Without the umbilical cord of tropical moisture, the only thing the storm can do is spin itself out, since it has no way to go.
This may take a while, however.
The remnants of Jose will slowly diminish over through the weekend into next week. By late weekend, Maria may become a big concern for the eastern seaboard. How these two ridges expand and deflate, in conjunction with what is left with Jose will either push Maria towards the shorelines, or kick out to sea.
It is too early to know, and operational models like this one cannot be trusted given the dynamics involved.
The windshield wiper effect with model ideas are firmly in play here. There is likely to be a westward shift in Maria’s track, much in the case of Jose. The question remains if Maria tracks close enough to be a factor along the east coast.
Special thanks to Tropical Tidbits and Pivotal Weather for their written permission to use their graphics in this post. Use of WeatherTAP images used within their written permitted terms of media use policy. Additional forecast information supplied by the National Weather Service, WeatherBELL Analytics and AccuWeather Professional.
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