While the region deals with clouds, areas of fog, drizzle and breeze from Jose through Thursday, the weekend appears summer-like for the first full weekend of autumn.
Fall arrives on Friday, and that appears to be when Jose drifts south enough to break up the clouds and bring back the sun. A ridge of high pressure from the southwest noses its way into the region, bringing with it increased humidity and late August like temperatures.
The region appears on track to see 70s and 80s on Saturday. Many locales see mid to upper 80s for Sunday, putting temperatures close to 20° above normal by the end of the weekend.
Even with Jose around, there is not much accumulative precipitation to benefit the region. DownEast areas that are in elevated drought may struggle to gain the predicted rainfall. All in all dry and warmer times are head through early next week.
The aforementioned ridge is one of the two key players as to factoring Maria’s track.
Guidance is in relative confidence of Maria’s track through the first half of the weekend before ideas begin to scatter. Jose’s slow weakening over the next few days along with the storm drifting south is an intriguing piece in this. It is by around Saturday night that the two weather features will be due north and south of one another. By that point, confidence is likely to increase as to where Maria progresses from there.
Given the forecast parameters, Maria is likely to affect the east coast from around South Carolina northward. I anticipate model ideas will continue to move the storm track westward, given the underestimation of the ridge over the Atlantic, and possible over amplification of the ridge over land. Confidence is growing that Maria will likely spin west of Bermuda, much in the way Jose did.
This opens up the possibility of either a close shave for at least part of the east coast, or more direct impacts. Where and when is still yet to be determined.
Special thanks to Tropical Tidbits and Pivotal Weather for their written permission to use their graphics in this post. Use of WeatherTAP images used within their written permitted terms of media use policy. Additional forecast information supplied by the National Weather Service, WeatherBELL Analytics and AccuWeather Professional.
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