Summer’s last gasp
For those who dread the heat and humidity, there is one more stretch of it on the way for the second half of the weekend through mid-week.
Humidity begins to build in the afternoon on Saturday as a southwest flow develops aloft.
Sunday and Monday are likely to be a bit on the uncomfortable side with the heat, as dew points rise into the 60s.
As the warm ridge takes a firm grip on the state, temperatures are expected to rise into the 80s statewide for Sunday, with the potential of some interior areas peaking out around 90° on Monday.
With the uptick in temperatures and dew points, areas of fog both coastal and inland are a possibility from Sunday through Tuesday, some of which may be locally dense.
While the temperatures drop on Tuesday as cloud cover increases as high pressure moves offshore, humidity remains an issue until after a cold front passes through the region Wednesday into Thursday.
It is that frontal boundary that is likely to keep Maria well away from Maine, although mariners should be concerned for an increase in swells by the end of the week.
More seasonable weather arrives later in the week, with cooler daytime temperatures and more comfortable humidity levels.
Maria likely to miss New England
I would not carve this into stone quite yet, but confidence is increasing that Maria will miss most, if not all of New England. Southeast Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the islands should pay attention for any fringe impacts, but the idea of a direct hit is fading.
Brad Panovich of NBC Charlotte, North Carolina discussed the GEFS ensembles in a tweet earlier on Friday:
— Brad Panovich (@wxbrad) September 22, 2017
There is still a fair amount of spread in the ensembles, but the ensemble means are indicating an out to sea solution. Models have shifted west towards the Outer Banks of North Carolina, but at this point it appears to give that area brush of wind and possibly rain.
The jet stream predicted map as of Monday shows Maria well east of Jacksonville with the big ridge extending as far north as St. James Bay.
By Thursday, the ridge is expected to collapse over New England. With the steering currents pointed northeastward, the storm has no where to go, but out to sea.
The region is not completely out of the woods, but it’s getting close.
Special thanks to Weather.us, Tropical Tidbits and Pivotal Weather for their written permission to use their graphics in this post. Additional forecast information supplied by the National Weather Service, WeatherBELL Analytics and AccuWeather Professional.
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