The players are on the board
Water vapor imagery looking over the North American continent shows all the key players in the weather through the weekend. The connection between the long wave frontal boundary and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico (the hose) is intact. High pressure to the east is helping to keep that moisture contained. Upper level energy (the driver) is digging south. The key in all of this will be the speed of the trailing piece of energy (the kicker) entering northern British Columbia. That piece and where it engages will dictate where the heaviest of the rain falls over the northeast Wednesday into Thursday. Following this round of rainfall, another is on tap for the second half of the weekend.
Tuesday to be dreary
Clouds, showers, drizzle, and areas of fog are likely for the state during the day. Humidity levels will be on the increase as the front approaches the region. High pressure to the east keeps all of the moisture in check. The day does not appear to feature heavy, steady rain. That arrives late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.
A windswept soaker for Wednesday
As the front approaches, it becomes jammed up against strong high pressure to the east. The result is gusty winds. The stiff breeze will enhance leaf drop. This poses an urban street flooding threat from clogged storm drains. Trees late in changing to their fall colors also pose a threat for falling limbs and/or contact with power lines.
With the tropical moisture involved, that brings along two threats, flash flooding from downpours, along with potential wind damage from down bursts.
A strong low level jet stream comes along with this system. Wind speeds at the 5,000 foot level range could in the 60-80 mph. Downpours assist in carrying that wind to the surface, which could cause localized damage and power outages.
And then there is coastal concerns…
The good news is astronomical tides will not be a factor. The southerly winds however will push the water onshore. Waves in the 6-12’+ range are entirely possible for the shorelines for the MidCoast, Penobscot Bay, and DownEast. Gale warnings are likely. Mariners are advised to stay updated on the marine forecast. It would not be a bad idea to take the day off. High tide during the 3:00 PM hour may bring some minor coastal flooding. The surf is likely to cause some beach erosion. Spectators are advised to admire the ocean power from a distance.
Rain continues Thursday
The front stalls over the state and does not move until Thursday. This model idea from the NAM is possibly overdone. The point is that rain and showers will persist until the front pushes completely through the region, which appears to be a slow process. Showers of various intensity is likely to persist through the day statewide, tapering to scattered showers Thursday night. Humidity levels will begin to drop, and drier air works in for Friday.
The drought takes a hit
The forecast is on track to deliver a much needed drenching for the state. As I stated, the key in all of this is the kicker energy that is the wild card in this. Some guidance indicates a late phase, which would bring the heavier amounts east of Penobscot Bay. An earlier phase would bring those higher amounts eastward. At the very least, this weather system appears to bring the greatest amount of rainfall since the middle part of August. More rain and wind is possible Sunday into Monday.
*Forecast temperatures are in general terms for region. Could be locally higher or lower depending on location.
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